{
 "schema": "aqualens.skill/1",
 "computed_at": "2026-10-14T04:18:08.866703+00:00",
 "rule": "Per lead day: Brier improvement over climatology on calls the record has judged (confirmed or wrong), 95% paired block-bootstrap CI with the calendar week as the block. A lead day is established when the whole CI is above 0 and at least 5 weeks stand behind it. cutoff_lead_days is the count of established lead days from day 1 with no gap; the cone is grey beyond it.",
 "caveats": [
  "Skill is measured against climatology on the record so far, which is thin early on.",
  "A greyed horizon is not a claim that nothing happens there. It is a statement that we cannot show we beat the base rate."
 ],
 "source": "site/public/data/record/calls.json",
 "n_record_entries": 84,
 "cutoff_lead_days": 0,
 "status": "none-established",
 "flood": {
  "hazard": "flood",
  "model_version": "baseline-climatology+livewx-v1",
  "served_horizon_days": 7,
  "metric": "Brier improvement over climatology (positive = better than the base rate)",
  "n_calls": 12,
  "n_scored": 0,
  "cutoff_lead_days": 0,
  "status": "none-established",
  "first_lead_ci_includes_zero": null,
  "first_lead_not_established": 1,
  "layer_note": "No lead time has been shown to beat climatology, so the whole forecast range is grey. 0 judged call(s) are on the record so far. A greyed horizon is not a claim that nothing happens there. It is a statement that we cannot show we beat the base rate.",
  "leads": [
   {
    "lead_day": 1,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 2,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 3,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 4,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 5,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 6,
    "n_calls": 0,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 0,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call has been served at this lead"
   },
   {
    "lead_day": 7,
    "n_calls": 12,
    "n_scored": 0,
    "n_not_observed": 0,
    "n_pending": 12,
    "n_unscored_no_reference": 0,
    "n_self_reference": 0,
    "n_weeks": 0,
    "model_brier": null,
    "climatology_brier": null,
    "skill": null,
    "ci_lo": null,
    "ci_hi": null,
    "bss": null,
    "ci_includes_zero": null,
    "established": false,
    "reason": "no call at this lead has been judged yet"
   }
  ]
 }
}